Skirmishes, Sintra and US Jobs Week

Monday 29th June 2026

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Nobody can accuse markets of being overly cynical about peace negotiations, says NAB’s Ken Crompton on this morning’s podcast. Oil fell on Friday despite skirmishes between Iran and Iran as Tehran seeks to reassert its control over the Strait. Most data on Friday were second tier stuff, with the surprise in the size of the US goods trade deficit the most surprising. Fed speakers over the weekend were sounding hawkish, and there will be a lot of interest in what Kevin Warsh says in Sintra this week. Yes, as Phil describes it, it’s the glitz and the glamour of the ECB Central Bankers Forum in Portugal, which is likely to provide a drip feed of news this week, alongside US jobs data, culminating in non-farm payrolls on Thursday.

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