How to Win a Trade War | Chad Bown

In Episode 491 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with trade economist Chad Bown—a former chief economist at the U.S. State Department, host of the popular Trade Talks podcast, and co-author of the recently published How to Win a Trade War—about what international policymakers, companies, and individuals need to understand about America's ongoing trade war, what victory would look like for the various parties involved in the conflict, and most importantly, how to win.

The first hour lays the intellectual groundwork for understanding the modern trading system, examining the unique role played by the dollar and capital recycling in concentrating the gains from trade among the owners of capital, and stress-testing the theory of weaponized interdependence through the ongoing case studies of Russia's war against Ukraine and America's latest war with Iran.

The second hour turns from the motivations behind the current trade war and what's at stake to the players themselves, their incentives, and what it means to wage a trade war in the first place—the weapons at each nation's disposal, the defensive measures to be taken, the strategies to be deployed, and the various time horizons and end games to be considered when fighting one.

They close with an assessment of American industrial policy, including the CHIPS Act and the semiconductor export-control regime, Beijing's willingness to weaponize its dominance in rare earths and permanent magnets, and three scenarios for how this new and likely durable era of economic conflict could ultimately unfold.

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Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas
Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou

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Episode Recorded on 07/23/2026