June Jobs Report: Not Sinking, But Not Surging. Just Treading Water. | Diving In

Is a “bad” jobs number is closer to normal than you think?

In this 10-minute breakdown, Justin Wolfers explains how to read the latest jobs report without overreacting to a single headline. June payroll growth came in at 57,000, which looks weak by the standards of a few years ago. But those older standards may no longer fit an economy with slower population growth and lower immigration. The labor market may now need only around 60,000 new jobs a month to stay in balance.

Justin also discusses what’s really driving the labor market. The answer is not manufacturing, but healthcare and social assistance. In fact, more than 100% of net job growth since January 2025 has come from those sectors alone, while the rest of the economy has lost jobs overall. This matters for two reasons. First, it explains why women have received 90% of the jobs created in this expansion. Second, it illuminates why so many Americans feel economic opportunity is shrinking. If you are not in the sectors that are expanding, the economy may feel far weaker than the headline unemployment rate suggests.

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