#381 Peter Grandich: Why the U.S. Stock Market's Biggest Tailwind Is About to Reverse

Veteran market analyst Peter Grandich of Peter Grandich and Company joins Julia for a mid-year macro check-in, and his message is decidedly cautious: after 42 years in finance, he believes the time has come to prioritize capital preservation over capital appreciation, especially in U.S. equities. Grandich lays out his bearish case across political, social, and economic lines—warning of a deeply divided Congress that couldn't manage another 2008-style crisis, a likely Democratic House sweep in the midterms that could derail Trump's agenda, runaway federal and state deficits, the looming threat of wealth and unrealized capital gains taxes, and the displacement of jobs by AI and robotics. He explains why he favors Asian equities over American ones, why he's cautiously back in gold (but not a "gold bug"), and why passive investing—once the market's biggest tailwind—could become its biggest risk. Closing with a vivid craps-table metaphor about a market overdue for a "seven," Grandich ultimately pivots to faith and family, reminding viewers that net worth shouldn't be confused with self-worth.

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Links:

https://x.com/PeterGrandich

https://petergrandich.com/

https://www.amazon.com/Confessions-FORMER-Wall-Street-Whiz/dp/B096LPRYW6

Timestamps:

00:00 — Welcome back & catching up with Peter Grandich

01:06 — Big-picture macro: "live chicken vs. dead duck"

06:28 — Midterms outlook & the political divide

10:54 — Echoes of 1929 and why this time is different

12:00 — State deficits, surcharges & "revenue enhancement"

13:11 — Taxes

17:30 — Congressional & presidential stock trading

20:20 — New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh & rate policy

22:59 — Inflation: is the 2% target dead?

25:07 — Wealth inequality & the jobs picture

28:18 — Allocation strategy: why "cookie cutter" fails

30:40 — Gold

32:00 — Spend less than you make

33:19 — Why look outside the U.S. market

34:00 — Passive investing: the market's biggest risk

38:38 — The craps table metaphor

41:32 — Parting thoughts: faith, family & "what good is it to gain the world?"