China’s Foreign Policy in 2026: Signals to Watch — with Mathieu Duchâtel

What does Europe actually want from China, and does it even know? In this episode, we sit down with Mathieu Duchâtel, Director of International Studies at Institut Montaigne, to untangle one of the most consequential and misread Duchâtelships in global politics. From Taiwan’s semiconductor strategy to Brussels’ electric vehicle tariffs, from Macron’s failed diplomatic charm offensive to Beijing’s quiet support for Russia’s war machine, Duchâtel reveals a Europe that has silently buried its optimism about China without a clear strategy to replace it.

Drawing on his years in Taiwan, Duchâtel shows just how far behind Europe has been in grasping the reality of economic dependency, and what that lag has cost. Meanwhile, China has quietly accumulated structural advantages: deep access to the European single market, a persistent trade surplus, and zero meaningful cost for enabling Russia’s war effort. Then there’s Taiwan, where Duchâtel resists simple military scenarios and points to something more unsettling: a long game of political warfare and influence operations designed to reshape the island’s political landscape from within. Finally, this episode reflects on China’s Vice Premier taking the Davos stage in early January to position Beijing as the last defender of globalization, in which Duchâtel offers a sharp analysis of what that performance was really about.