Forecasting AI progress until 2040

What will AI progress look like over the next 15 years? Informed by current trends, Epoch AI researchers Jaime Sevilla and Yafah Edelman argue that the default expectation should be wild. They discuss whether AI will solve the Riemann Hypothesis in 5 years, what AI agents will be able to do in 2030, and what happens if we have 100,000 self-improving robots. They also explore what might make progress much faster or slower than they expect. 

0:00:00 - Preview
0:00:41 - Intro: Does 5× compute scaling continue?
0:08:15 - Largest training run in 2030 & what does it imply?
0:12:44 - Impact on Software Engineering & other cognitive tasks
0:23:27 - Economic impacts near the end of the decade
0:31:34 - 2030 bifurcation: Slow down or take off?
0:35:49 - Physical vs cognitive automation
0:44:37 - Timelines and impact of full cognitive automation
1:02:37 - Returns to intelligence
1:08:51 - Three cruxes after 2035 (Robots, technology & intelligence)
1:16:28 - What happens in 2040?  
1:23:16 - Recap: Three eras of forecasting
1:37:42 - Closing remarks

For full transcripts of all Epoch After Hours episodes, visit: https://epoch.ai/epoch-after-hours

-- Credits --
Participants: Jaime Sevilla & Yafah Edelman
Design: Robert Sandler
Podcast Production & Editing: Caroline Falkman Olsson & Anson Ho
 
Special thanks to The Producer’s Loft for their support with recording and editing this episode — https://theproducersloft.com/