Inflation Risk is the Wrong Recession Lesson

This might be the most dangerous economic assertion circulating today: the high inflation from 2021-2023 was caused by government stimulus. The talking point on the right goes: the third COVID-era stimulus checks landed in March 2021, prices took off, case closed. Of course reality is more nuanced. And most serious estimates pin only a point or two of the inflation peak on the bill; the rest was supply chain chaos, a global chip shortage, and the Ukraine war. The pandemic caused the worst job loss on record — and the response produced the fastest labor-market recovery we've ever had, because policymakers went big. The danger is that they remember the inflation and forget the recovery. Chapters: 00:01:14 Announcements 00:03:24  Retcon: Q1 GDP Revised  00:04:50 Terms & Conditions: Output Gap, NAIRU, "The Long Depression" 00:11:49  Big Pilcrow: Is Recession Recovery Getting Blamed for Inflation? 00:42:14  Executive Orders: Parallel parking licenses, FIFA ticketing ban 00:45:52  Spiritual Sponsors: Small hardware stores, handwritten letter to OE Support Optimist Economy: https://optimisteconomy.com/donate Video-curious? Watch the Optimist Economy YouTube channel⁠⁠. We’re also on Instagram at ⁠⁠@optimist_economy or TikTok at ⁠⁠@optimist_economy. Or search for us on Facebook. Chat with Optimists on Substack. Hats, tees and totes: https://merch.ambientinks.com/collections/optimisteconomy Reach us at: optimist.economy@gmail.com