Phillips O'Brien on America's Strategic Collapse

The acclaimed military historian explains why conflict in Iran, Ukraine and the erosion of alliances point to a deeper crisis in American strategy and details the critical nature of the 2026 midterm elections.

In the latest episode of the Steady State Sentinel, Phillips O'Brien, Professor of Strategic Studies at the University of St. Andrews and one of the sharpest contemporary writers on war and strategy joins host John Sipher to argue the Iran War revealed two devastating truths:

1. The U.S. government is strategically incoherent — it went to war without clear goals or an exit plan.
2. The U.S. military is showing signs of degradation, with weaker officers promoted and critical thinking suppressed.

He dissects the Memorandum of Understanding with Iran, calling it a capitulation: "Trump got nothing. Iran is in better shape at the end than it was before the bombing started." He warns that the U.S. is now deemed utterly untrustworthy by allies, in Europe and throughout Asia, and that China is now positioned to win a war with the U.S. due to America's military degradation and collapsed industrial base.

He critiques the Biden administration's "Goldilocks strategy" in Ukraine — which, concerned about global stability, sought to ensure that Ukraine could survive, but didn't want Russia to lose. This was followed by Trump, who abandoned Ukraine completely.

O’Brien frames the 2026 midterms as the most consequential election since 1862 on which hinged the results of the Civil War. The results of the 2026 midterms will determine whether the massive corruption within this administration becomes fully entrenched throughout the government: once these systems go corrupt, it becomes entrenched.

The episode closes with O'Brien explaining why the Administration’s MAGA movement has resulted in the deliberate destruction of the U.S. Alliance system that has kept America strong and prosperous for the last 80 years. If it continues unchecked, the stability we enjoyed will be impossible to rebuild.

Guest info: Phillips O'Brien is Professor of Strategic Studies at the University of St. Andrews and one of the sharpest contemporary writers on war, strategy, and political power. He is the author of several major books, including How the War Was Won, The Strategists, The Second Most Powerful Man in the World, and most recently War and Power: Who Wins Wars and Why. He writes regularly for The Atlantic, Foreign Affairs, and his own Substack, Phillips's Newsletter.

Episode Transcript