New Global Emissions Projections: Scrapping the Highs & Lows with Detlef van Vuuren

In this Climate Chat episode, hosts Leon Simons and Dan Miller interview climate scientist Detlef van Vuuren about his recent paper where he lays our new "emissions scenarios" that will be used by the IPCC to predict future global warming. Since future temperatures depend on our future greenhouse gas emissions, scientists need to use emission scenarios to predict future temperatures. Past scenarios included what some scientists felt were beyond the possible worst case emissions, as well as scenarios that assumed much less emissions than currently seems feasible. Detlef and his colleagues has set forth a set of scenarios that fall in the middle of past approaches. Detlef van Vuuren is a senior researcher at PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency and a professor in Integrated Assessment of Global Environmental Change at the Faculty of Geosciences, Utrecht University. Leading the IMAGE integrated assessment modelling team, his research concentrates on using model-based scenarios to identify response strategies to global environmental problems. He is a member of several international scientific commissions, including the Integrated Assessment Modelling Consortium, the Global Carbon Project and the Earth Commission. Detlef van Vuuren had a coordinating role in developing the Representative Concentration Pathways and Shared Socio-economic Pathways now used in the IPCC’s assessments. He has participated as (coordinating) lead author in various assessments such as the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, UNEP’s Global Environmental Outlook and various IPCC reports. Detlef van Vuuren has published more than 430 articles in refereed journals. Based on his work, Reuters listed him 2021 as the 4th most influential climate scientist worldwide. Detlef's article on the new CMIP7 emissions scenarios: https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/19/2627/2026/ Please Like and Subscribe! Listen to Climate Chat on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/climate-chat/id1893162516 Listen to Climate Chat on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/1m0OSLWRPPcyOddErvxJ1e Dan Miller has been giving talks around the world on the need for urgent climate action for over 20 years. He is co-founder of The Roda Group, a climate-tech venture capital group, and he serves as an advisor for other climate funds and climate-focused non-profit groups. He started Climate Chat in 2021 on Clubhouse and added YouTube in 2023. Follow Dan Miller on X/Twitter: @danmiller999 Follow Dan Miller on Bluesky: @danmiller999.bsky.social and @climatechat.bsky.social Leon Simons is a climate scientist based in the Netherlands. He was a co-author with James Hansen on the 2023 "Global Warming in the Pipeline" paper that discussed the recent acceleration in global warming. Leon's work has focused recently on changes in aerosol emissions from ships and the impact of those changes on climate change. You can access Leon's research writings here: https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Leon-Simons Follow Leon on X/Twitter: @LeonSimons8 and Bluesky: ‪@leonsimons.bsky.social‬ Follow Leon on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/c/LeonSimons/home Follow Stacey Randecker on X/Twitter: @DrivingMzStacey and Bluesky: @bikingmzstacey.bsky.social Follow Eli Rabani on X/Twitter: @radsci and Bluesky: @radsci.bsky.social You can leave a question in the YouTube Live chat. Please begin your question with "Question:" to make it easy for our mods to spot it. For more Climate Chat episodes, see our YouTube home page: https://www.youtube.com/@climatechat For recent YouTube Live Climate Chat programs: https://www.youtube.com/@climatechat/streams