19 juni 2026
78 min
In this second installment of *The First Draft of History*, analysts Rob Lee and Dmytro Putiata pick up where they left off to tackle one of the most defining features of the current war in Ukraine: the kill zone. Once just a couple kilometers deep, this lethal band of contested airspace and ground has expanded dramatically—now stretching 15, 20, or more kilometers along the front lines. Rob and Dmytro break down what the kill zone actually means in practice, how drones have transformed it, and why both Russia and Ukraine are scrambling to adapt to this rapidly evolving battlefield reality.
The conversation digs into the tactical and structural shifts reshaping the fight, from drones serving as force multipliers to the emerging cat-and-mouse dynamic of "hunting the hunters." The hosts explore the growing importance of deep strike and middle strike capabilities, the targeting of Russia's rear systems, and the persistent challenge of thin, overstretched lines that conceal hidden vulnerabilities on both sides.
A centerpiece of the episode is a hard look back at the Dobropillia breakthrough—August's deepest scare for Ukraine—where Russian infiltration tested the defense in alarming ways. Rob and Dmytro examine how Ukraine responded, the costly toll the operation took on Russian forces, and the broader lessons learned, including the dangers of "lying upward" through the chain of command and the ever-present manpower equation.
Looking ahead, the discussion weighs the ongoing debate between brigade and division structures, the question of brigade autonomy, and what all these adaptations mean for a possible return to maneuver warfare. Filmed in Kyiv as of May 2026 by two analysts who regularly visit the front lines, this episode offers a clear-eyed, ground-level assessment of where the war stands—and why 2026 may be looking better for Ukraine than many expected. Be sure to catch part one for the full picture.
Timestamps:
0:00–The Kill Zone Defined
4:45–Concept Without Implementation
9:14–Fifteen Kilometers and Growing
14:11–Drones as Force Multipliers
17:44–Hunting the Hunters
24:46–Dobropillia: August's Deepest Scare
28:30–Russia's Costly Infiltration
32:08–The Cost of Lying Upward
37:34–The Manpower Equation
42:43–Brigades Versus Divisions
47:26–Deep Strike and Middle Strike
52:16–Striking the Rear Systems
57:19–Thin Lines, Hidden Weaknesses
1:01:46–Toward Maneuver Once Again
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