Marty's back on the shore house porch just as the Middle East flares up again. Marty and John dig into WTI and Brent back in the 80s, the SPR hitting 43 days, and why GCC countries are racing to bypass the Strait of Hormuz. They also get into the US as a helium winner, the Fed trying to have it both ways on forward guidance and inflation, and why Kimi K3 is exposing the strategic risk of nerfed frontier models. They also touch on Jevons Paradox in AI inference, whether sovereigns will end up backstopping training spend, and Bitcoin hovering around 64k with the strategic reserve bill finally hitting committee.

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In this episode:

Shore house banter and Canadian wildfire smoke

Iran escalation and oil back in the 80s

SPR at 43 days lowest since 1983

GCC pipeline rush to bypass the Strait of Hormuz

Houthi blockade threats and Iraq oil deals

US helium exports surging to Asia

Fed governors declaring inflation peaked

The forward guidance contradiction

Kimi K3 surpassing US frontier models

Hugging Face and the nerfed frontier model problem

Jevons Paradox and AI inference demand

Sovereign backstops for training spend

Bitcoin around 64k and Galaxy bottom indicators

Strategic Bitcoin Reserve bill hits committee

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00:00 - Shore house banter and smoke

00:01:27 - Iran back on the table

00:02:57 - SPR at 43 days

00:03:27 - GCC pipeline rush

00:05:02 - Yemen blockade threats

00:05:35 - Iraq PM visits Washington

00:07:35 - US helium winner

00:10:25 - Fed declares inflation peaked

00:14:27 - Kimi K3 and open weight models

00:19:07 - Hugging Face autonomous AI attack

00:22:53 - Jevons Paradox and inference

00:25:55 - Sovereign backstops for training

00:29:02 - Bitcoin around 64k

00:30:36 - Strategic Bitcoin Reserve bill

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