The Iran deal is dead again, ships are getting hit in the Gulf, and the ten year is back above four point five five. Marty and John sort through the latest Middle East escalation, why both sides actually want the conflict to keep going, and what it means for oil, LNG, and bond volatility. They dig into Japan's thirty year yield highs and the delicate balance the BOJ is walking, Mohamed El-Erian vouching for Bessent's industrial policy in the New York Times, and why the MOVE index might matter more than the absolute rate level. They also cover Circle's bank charter approval, the OpenUSD consortium bringing Wall Street and Silicon Valley together around the digital dollar, and the growing turf war over who gets to run America's strategic Bitcoin reserve.

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In this episode:

• Iran deal collapses again and the incentive to keep fighting
• Trump wants to be the paid guardian of the Strait of Hormuz
• Ten year yields jumping and what the MOVE index is saying
• Qatar pauses LNG ramp and European gas spikes
• Japan bond yields hit thirty year highs
• Mohamed El-Erian vouching for Bessent's doctrine
• Circle gets OCC approval despite bank lobbying
• OpenUSD and the digital dollar consortium
• Treasury versus Commerce over the Bitcoin reserve
• America's lead as the Bitcoin superpower

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00:00 - Beach banter and summer grind

00:01:09 - Iran deal dead again

00:01:36 - Iran attacks ships and Trump ends the MOU

00:02:18 - Incentives to keep fighting

00:03:09 - Guardian of the Strait

00:04:05 - Ten year yields jump

00:05:25 - MOVE index and bond volatility

00:09:21 - Qatar LNG disruption

00:11:54 - Japan yields at thirty year highs

00:16:56 - Mohamed El-Erian on Bessent

00:19:32 - Circle gets bank charter approval

00:22:25 - OpenUSD digital dollar consortium

00:26:55 - Treasury versus Commerce over SBR

00:29:35 - America the Bitcoin superpower

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