Semis Gone Parabolic. Fed Credibility Reversal. Can the Rally Survive the Flows?

In this episode of Last Call, we look back at June 2026 and break down the biggest market stories shaping investors’ outlook for the second half of the year. Matt Zeigler and Jack Forehand are joined by Andy Constan, Ben Hunt, Brent Kochuba and Eric Pachman to discuss the SpaceX IPO, AI and semiconductor cyclicality, Fed credibility, options flows, labor market quality, crack spreads and inflation risk.

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Main topics covered

• Why the SpaceX IPO became the biggest market story of the month

• How index flows, ETF buying and hedge fund positioning shaped SpaceX trading

• Andy Constan on why future earnings growth may be oversubscribed across AI stocks

• Why AI spending is benefiting semiconductors, memory and chip equipment companies

• The Fab Five companies behind semiconductor capacity and why they matter

• Ben Hunt on Fed credibility, market narratives, gold, the dollar and trust

• Brent Kochuba on options flows, correlation risk and volatility spasms in tech stocks

• Why short-term options volume may signal excess speculation in QQQ and AI stocks

• How SpaceX options trading changed after the first wave of retail excitement

• Eric Pachman on why headline job growth may hide weakness in wages and job quality

• Why crack spreads, refining constraints and oil logistics may matter more for inflation than crude prices alone

• What investors should watch next in AI, semiconductors, memory, innovation and market cycles

Timestamps

00:00 Intro
01:02 Matt and Jack introduce Last Call and the June market review
03:05 Why SpaceX dominated the month and how the IPO traded after opening
07:33 Andy Constan on Fab Five Freddy eating the semis
10:35 Why future earnings growth may be oversubscribed across the stock market
13:35 How AI compute spending flows through chips, fabs and semiconductor equipment
17:45 Are parts of the semiconductor market showing signs of an earnings bubble?
20:12 Ben Hunt on the Fed credibility chart that surprised him
23:50 Why Fed credibility, Sell America, gold and the dollar are connected
29:48 Brent Kochuba on options flows behind AI stocks, semis and SpaceX
33:36 Why semiconductor volatility may be warning of a short-term reset
38:46 What SpaceX options trading says after the initial surge
42:12 Eric Pachman on jobs, wages and what the Fed may be missing
48:24 Why crack spreads matter for oil, refining, gas prices and inflation
55:28 What to watch next in AI, semiconductors, memory demand and market cycles
59:01 Why efficiency, competition and cyclical thinking matter for AI investors
01:03:02 Matt and Jack close the episode

No information on this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed in the podcast may be holdings of the firms of the hosts or their clients.