The $2 Trillion Question | Tobias Carlisle on SpaceX, the AI Buildout, and the Rotation No One Sees

Tobias Carlisle joins Excess Returns to discuss why today’s market may be setting up a major opportunity in value stocks, small caps and micro caps. We cover stretched market valuations, AI capex, SpaceX and other massive IPOs, the risk of speculative growth assumptions, and how Tobias builds systematic deep value portfolios in ZIG and DEEP.

Tobias Carlisle on X
https://x.com/Greenbackd

Acquirers Funds
https://acquirersfunds.com/

Topics covered:

• Why elevated market valuations point to lower forward returns, not necessarily an immediate exit from stocks

• The case for small value, micro-cap value and mid-cap value after a long large-cap growth cycle

• Why equal-weight indexes and small caps may be signaling a market leadership shift

• Whether AI capex will create lasting profits or mostly benefit consumers

• The parallels and differences between AI, the dot-com boom, railroads and fiber optic buildouts

• How AI spending is being financed and why the stock market may be demanding more compute investment

• What the SpaceX IPO, OpenAI and Anthropic could mean for market supply and investor psychology

• Why base rates are being challenged by the growth of major technology platforms

• How disruption can create value traps and why traditional valuation metrics can struggle in disrupted industries

• The energy demand implications of AI data centers and why nuclear and natural gas could matter

• How Tobias combines valuation, quality, financial statements and portfolio construction in ZIG and DEEP

• Why quarterly rebalancing may be a practical balance between timing luck, momentum and trading costs

Timestamps:

00:00 Why AI value may accrue to consumers
04:00 What extreme market valuations say about future returns
08:22 Small caps, equal weight and the Mag Seven reversal
14:15 AI capex and lessons from past technology booms
19:47 Who gets the profits from AI?
23:00 Cash flow, debt and the AI spending race
28:06 SpaceX, giant IPOs and market supply
31:00 OpenAI, Anthropic and Mauboussin’s base rates
35:17 Is buying the S&P 500 more speculative than investors realize?
36:57 Value investing during disruptive technology cycles
41:07 War, energy prices and the broadening trade
45:32 Semiconductor valuations and aggressive growth assumptions
47:30 How Tobias builds the ZIG and DEEP portfolios
54:17 ETF rebalancing, timing luck and systematic value investing